Transparency

Signal Performance

Signal performance is CryptoTradeSignals's transparent, forward-recorded ledger of how every active trading signal actually performs. For each signal we log how far the coin moved in the predicted direction, then report the win rate at each take-profit target (+1%, +2%, +3%) and the typical (median) follow-through — grouped by strategy, timeframe and conviction so you can see exactly which signals to trade.

Tracking since May 27, 2026 · 789 signals recorded · 670 resolved · 119 live

67%Win rate @ +2%Share of resolved signals that reached +2% in the predicted direction before the stop — the win rate if you took profit at +2%.
59%Win rate @ +3%Share of resolved signals that reached +3% before the stop.
+4.4%Median peak moveThe typical furthest move in the predicted direction (median MFE) — half of signals ran further, half less. Median, so outliers don't inflate it.
6.2%Median heatThe typical furthest move against a signal before it resolved (median MAE). Lower is better.
4dMedian time to resolveHalf of signals finish faster than this. Most resolve in days, not weeks.
+168.4%Best peak move · ALLOThe single largest favorable move any recorded signal reached.
670Resolved signalsFinished signals (stopped or ran the full window). Win rates use these.
119Live nowSignals still open and being tracked forward from live price data.

Which signals actually win

Win rate at a +2% take-profit, by the strategy and timeframe that fired the signal — the single most useful cut, because it maps straight to your agent's strategy and timeframe filter.

Win rate @ +2% · by strategy · timeframe
Trend 4h66%n=319
Mean-reversion 1d58%n=240
Breakout 1d88%n=76
Trend 1d91%n=35
Strategy · timeframeSignalsWin +1%Win +2%Win +3%Median peakMedian heatRaw stop
Trend · 4h31977%66%55%+3.5%−4.3%81%
Mean-reversion · 1d24067%58%52%+3.3%−8.7%65%
Breakout · 1d7693%88%86%+10.6%−14.6%20%
Trend · 1d3591%91%86%+9.4%−12.4%54%

* small sample (fewer than 20 resolved) — directional only. Raw stop assumes no take-profit and no trailing; the win-rate columns reflect how you actually exit.

Does conviction predict the win?

Win rate at +2% across conviction bands. If higher conviction reliably meant better trades, this would climb steadily left-to-right. Read the shape before you lean on a high minimum-conviction gate.

Win rate @ +2% · by conviction band

Faded bars are small samples (fewer than 20 resolved) — treat only the solid bars as reliable. Notice they sit in a flat mid-band, not a clean climb.

ConvictionSignalsWin +1%Win +2%Win +3%Median peakMedian heatRaw stop
< 40%29676%64%53%+3.4%−4.2%82%
40–45%2387%78%78%+5.8%−6.0%74%
45–50%5 *80%80%80%+7.2%−8.8%60%
50–55%6 *100%83%67%+4.0%−8.1%50%
55–60%6190%80%74%+8.9%−9.3%38%
60–65%8974%67%61%+6.8%−7.7%54%
65–70%8367%57%53%+4.0%−9.0%65%
70–75%6456%55%48%+2.9%−9.5%75%
75–80%2195%90%86%+8.8%−15.1%33%
80–85%12 *100%92%92%+14.2%−9.6%17%
85–90%8 *88%88%88%+9.0%−16.3%25%
90%+2 *100%100%100%+23.6%−13.9%0%

What this means for your agent

Strategy is the biggest lever. In this window, Trend · 1d signals reached +2% before their stop 91% of the time, versus just 58% for Mean-reversion · 1d. Point your agent's strategy / timeframe filter at the strong rows above.
Don't over-trust conviction alone. The conviction curve is uneven, not a clean rising line — a high minimum-conviction gate is not, by itself, a reliable edge here.
Set a take-profit that matches. Most signals resolve in 4d (median), and the win rates above are measured at fixed targets — a +2–3% take-profit realises them; holding for the raw stop does not.

Longs vs shorts

Is the engine sharper in one direction? Win rate at +2% and the typical move, by side.

DirectionSignalsReached +2%Avg peakAvg adverse
Long39872%+11.3%8.3%
Short39166%+7.4%7.0%

By market regime

The market state when the signal fired. Each strategy is built for a specific regime.

RegimeSignalsWin +1%Win +2%Win +3%Median peakMedian heatRaw stop
Range36970%60%51%+3.3%−6.5%72%
High-volatility16585%76%70%+7.3%−7.2%53%
Trend-down8081%73%61%+4.1%−4.2%69%
Trend-up4178%78%76%+9.5%−11.9%71%

By manipulation risk (Trap Score)

Does a cleaner order book win more? Win rate and typical heat, by the coin's Trap Score at signal time.

Trap bandSignalsWin +1%Win +2%Win +3%Median peakMedian heatRaw stop
Low (0–3)63176%66%58%+4.2%−6.1%68%
Moderate (3–5)3083%80%80%+11.0%−10.9%40%
Elevated (5–6)4 *75%75%75%+16.1%−22.6%50%
High (6+)5 *60%40%40%+1.7%−29.2%80%

How to read this page

Plain-language definitions for every column and term above.

Win rate (per target)
The share of RESOLVED signals whose price reached that take-profit target (+1/2/3%) in the predicted direction before the stop. Because the exit is your choice, we show a column per target — read the one that matches how you would exit.
Median peak (MFE)
The typical furthest move in the signal's favour before it resolved — the median, so a few giant outliers do not inflate it. Formally, median Maximum Favorable Excursion.
Median heat (MAE)
The typical furthest move against the signal before it resolved — the risk you would have sat through. Formally, median Maximum Adverse Excursion. Lower is better.
Raw stop
Worst case only: the share that eventually touched the engine's initial stop assuming NO take-profit and no trailing. A signal can run +2/3% (a win for most exits) and still later read here, so this is context, not the headline. The live agent trails its stop to protect gains.
Strategy · timeframe
The engine strategy that fired the signal (Trend, Mean-reversion or Breakout) and the timeframe it fired on (4h or 1d). This maps directly to your agent's strategy / timeframe filter.
Conviction
The engine's confidence in a signal, 0–100%. Grouped into bands so you can test whether higher conviction genuinely means a higher win rate (the curve above shows how weak or strong that link is).
Regime
The market state at signal time (trend-up, trend-down, range or high-volatility). Strategies are built for specific regimes.
Trap Score
Our 0–10 manipulation-risk gauge for the coin at signal time. Higher means more wash-trading, spoofing or squeeze risk — and, usually, more heat.
Resolved / Live
Resolved = the signal has finished (stopped or ran the full window). Live = still open and updating from price data. Win rates use resolved signals only.
Generated (UTC / IST)
The moment the signal first turned active, shown in both UTC and IST (UTC+5:30) so you can place it in your own day.

Biggest moves

The largest favorable moves recorded since tracking began — with each signal's conviction and status, so the headline “best peak move” is fully attributable.

CoinDirectionConvictionTrapPeak moveAdverseHeldStatusGenerated
ALLOLong41%2.7+168.38%20.39%14dexpiredJun 2, 16:00 UTCJun 2, 21:30 IST
MMTLong33%0.0+125.46%6.28%27.0hstoppedJul 30, 12:00 UTCJul 30, 17:30 IST
HOMELong83%6.2+98.13%29.16%8dstoppedJun 1, 00:00 UTCJun 1, 05:30 IST
GIGGLELong25%0.3+91.18%0.00%openJul 30, 16:00 UTCJul 30, 21:30 IST
COTILong80%4.8+89.70%7.68%14dexpiredJul 28, 00:00 UTCJul 28, 05:30 IST
STGLong61%2.0+84.32%13.87%6dstoppedMay 31, 00:00 UTCMay 31, 05:30 IST
RIFLong54%0.0+84.07%17.06%14dexpiredJun 13, 00:00 UTCJun 13, 05:30 IST
MANTALong32%2.0+83.01%6.36%27.0hstoppedJun 28, 04:00 UTCJun 28, 09:30 IST
ZBTLong27%0.3+78.97%8.53%2dstoppedAug 5, 20:00 UTCAug 6, 01:30 IST
DEXEShort83%4.9+74.89%3.83%14dexpiredJul 22, 00:00 UTCJul 22, 05:30 IST
KAITOLong40%1.1+69.74%3.24%14dexpiredJul 11, 12:00 UTCJul 11, 17:30 IST
KAITOLong55%1.7+65.58%0.23%14dexpiredJun 27, 00:00 UTCJun 27, 05:30 IST

Recent signals

The latest signal per coin and direction, newest first — a re-firing signal shows once with a ×N count rather than repeating. Times in UTC and IST.

CoinDirectionConvictionTrapPeak moveAdverseHeldStatusGenerated
BNT ×4Short37%3.6+0.00%1.89%40mstoppedAug 11, 03:20 UTCAug 11, 08:50 IST
PUMP ×2Long81%1.4+5.97%1.55%openAug 11, 00:10 UTCAug 11, 05:40 IST
MANTRAShort37%0.6+0.55%0.92%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
EIGEN ×2Short28%0.9+0.22%2.28%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
INJ ×5Long69%0.9+2.53%0.68%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
BNB ×3Short67%2.0+0.14%0.28%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
XVS ×3Short38%0.3+0.74%0.74%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
MEME ×2Short71%0.0+2.90%0.58%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
AIXBTShort67%0.3+1.67%1.24%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
PNUT ×2Short67%0.1+2.88%1.92%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
TURBOShort66%0.2+1.67%0.72%openAug 11, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 05:30 IST
ASTRShort34%1.2+0.87%0.62%openAug 10, 20:00 UTCAug 11, 01:30 IST
QTUM ×2Short39%1.1+1.23%0.00%openAug 10, 20:00 UTCAug 11, 01:30 IST
LTC ×3Short36%0.0+0.35%0.35%openAug 10, 16:00 UTCAug 10, 21:30 IST
FF ×2Long27%0.0+5.66%0.00%openAug 10, 16:00 UTCAug 10, 21:30 IST
RSR ×2Long28%0.2+0.64%1.04%openAug 10, 16:00 UTCAug 10, 21:30 IST
GNO ×5Short32%1.2+0.88%0.20%openAug 10, 16:00 UTCAug 10, 21:30 IST
WOOShort36%1.9+2.82%0.35%openAug 10, 16:00 UTCAug 10, 21:30 IST
PEOPLE ×2Long83%4.2+2.84%10.82%openAug 10, 00:20 UTCAug 10, 05:50 IST
AT ×14Short62%0.0+4.52%0.88%openAug 10, 00:00 UTCAug 10, 05:30 IST
BANANAS31 ×2Long57%4.0+3.67%21.42%openAug 10, 00:00 UTCAug 10, 05:30 IST
WLFI ×2Long66%1.8+6.20%1.32%openAug 10, 00:00 UTCAug 10, 05:30 IST
ILVShort64%0.0+2.95%1.64%openAug 10, 00:00 UTCAug 10, 05:30 IST
XLMLong68%0.4+0.91%2.43%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
IOTXLong78%2.8+55.47%8.68%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
GPS ×3Short74%0.5+6.39%0.91%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
FORM ×3Long57%1.6+13.05%7.90%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
CATI ×3Long72%3.8+43.82%2.53%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
JASMYLong70%0.6+1.47%4.17%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
XRPLong70%0.0+0.81%3.59%openAug 9, 00:00 UTCAug 9, 05:30 IST
MMT ×3Long68%0.7+30.14%2.04%openAug 8, 00:00 UTCAug 8, 05:30 IST
PLUME ×3Short62%0.1+3.98%5.06%openAug 8, 00:00 UTCAug 8, 05:30 IST
ROSEShort62%0.0+0.71%5.51%openAug 8, 00:00 UTCAug 8, 05:30 IST
STGShort63%2.0+10.31%0.77%openAug 8, 00:00 UTCAug 8, 05:30 IST
EGLD ×3Short26%0.2+0.00%3.83%30mstoppedAug 7, 07:30 UTCAug 7, 13:00 IST
CFX ×2Long65%0.0+7.21%0.65%openAug 7, 00:00 UTCAug 7, 05:30 IST
NEIRO ×3Short66%0.0+1.97%9.31%2dstoppedAug 7, 00:00 UTCAug 7, 05:30 IST
PENGU ×5Short34%0.0+0.50%3.76%28.0hstoppedAug 7, 00:00 UTCAug 7, 05:30 IST
PLUME ×3Long26%1.2+4.67%5.86%9.0hstoppedAug 6, 20:00 UTCAug 7, 01:30 IST
GENIUS ×2Short38%1.7+0.00%4.64%8.0hstoppedAug 6, 20:00 UTCAug 7, 01:30 IST
ADA ×3Short62%0.0+2.09%7.59%openAug 6, 18:20 UTCAug 6, 23:50 IST
MORPHO ×4Long70%0.0+4.43%3.16%openAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
OPENLong53%1.9+5.58%10.49%openAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
SSV ×6Short49%0.9+3.98%4.03%openAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
HOME ×2Short59%1.3+1.85%32.33%5dstoppedAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
ETHFI ×2Long60%0.0+7.19%5.84%openAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
BABY ×5Long68%2.0+24.63%1.20%openAug 6, 00:00 UTCAug 6, 05:30 IST
ZBTLong27%0.3+78.97%8.53%2dstoppedAug 5, 20:00 UTCAug 6, 01:30 IST
AVAXLong58%1.5+0.49%5.05%openAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
LDOShort67%1.4+1.71%9.15%openAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
NIGHTShort34%0.0+2.48%5.49%41.0hstoppedAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
ALGO ×2Short65%0.0+9.28%1.90%openAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
ORCA ×3Long65%0.5+8.33%3.66%openAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
ASTER ×5Short27%0.7+1.32%1.32%4dstoppedAug 5, 00:00 UTCAug 5, 05:30 IST
BOMELong27%0.8+52.34%4.50%openAug 4, 20:00 UTCAug 5, 01:30 IST
XEC ×2Long33%0.9+0.00%6.34%2dstoppedAug 4, 16:00 UTCAug 4, 21:30 IST
XNO ×3Long35%1.3+3.48%2.99%openAug 4, 12:00 UTCAug 4, 17:30 IST
HUMA ×2Long62%1.6+15.27%5.81%openAug 4, 00:00 UTCAug 4, 05:30 IST
ZROLong69%0.4+18.35%1.35%openAug 4, 00:00 UTCAug 4, 05:30 IST
BTC ×2Long32%1.1+2.36%1.01%openAug 3, 20:00 UTCAug 4, 01:30 IST
CVX ×3Long26%1.7+36.19%0.98%openAug 3, 16:00 UTCAug 3, 21:30 IST
IMXShort34%0.6+0.82%3.09%11.0hstoppedAug 3, 04:00 UTCAug 3, 09:30 IST
WIF ×6Long66%0.3+5.88%2.08%openAug 3, 00:00 UTCAug 3, 05:30 IST
BNT ×3Long70%0.0+3.81%2.49%openAug 3, 00:00 UTCAug 3, 05:30 IST
WLong62%0.0+6.62%2.33%openAug 3, 00:00 UTCAug 3, 05:30 IST
ICPLong66%0.0+15.52%1.54%openAug 3, 00:00 UTCAug 3, 05:30 IST
CRV ×4Long68%1.0+34.65%1.43%openAug 3, 00:00 UTCAug 3, 05:30 IST
FLOW ×2Short62%0.2+10.05%9.25%9dstoppedAug 2, 00:00 UTCAug 2, 05:30 IST
TRUMP ×2Long70%0.0+7.24%0.77%openAug 2, 00:00 UTCAug 2, 05:30 IST
CAKE ×4Short71%0.7+1.49%3.98%openAug 2, 00:00 UTCAug 2, 05:30 IST
VTHO ×2Short27%0.1+1.81%2.72%5dstoppedAug 2, 00:00 UTCAug 2, 05:30 IST
TIAShort31%0.0+0.22%3.44%6.0hstoppedAug 1, 20:00 UTCAug 2, 01:30 IST
MEGA ×2Short27%0.8+5.97%4.18%openAug 1, 20:00 UTCAug 2, 01:30 IST
SAND ×2Long66%1.4+2.57%4.52%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
2Z ×3Long63%2.1+3.70%4.11%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
FORM ×5Short69%0.1+6.13%10.22%8dstoppedAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
BIO ×3Long68%0.0+21.64%5.87%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
PNUT ×2Long71%0.0+15.54%4.51%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
BTCShort54%0.0+0.95%4.13%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
HYPERShort62%2.3+1.25%44.92%33.0hstoppedAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
ARKM ×2Long62%0.9+5.34%4.08%openAug 1, 00:00 UTCAug 1, 05:30 IST
BCH ×2Short36%1.0+1.01%3.28%2dstoppedJul 31, 12:00 UTCJul 31, 17:30 IST
ASTR ×2Long70%0.7+1.76%4.47%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
RLC ×2Long63%2.0+29.42%8.26%38.0hstoppedJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
CYBERLong67%0.0+6.58%2.30%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
S ×3Long68%0.1+14.45%3.87%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
ASTERLong71%0.0+2.14%1.97%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
AXL ×2Long79%0.9+1.61%4.57%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
MEME ×2Long69%2.0+7.98%5.25%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
LINEALong79%1.6+6.12%2.52%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
SUSHILong64%0.5+16.87%2.74%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
KSM ×2Long70%0.0+10.77%1.35%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
EIGEN ×3Long60%0.0+5.61%6.21%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
WAL ×2Long66%1.3+1.92%6.54%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
GAS ×2Long63%0.0+2.13%3.62%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
NOTLong73%2.1+15.24%0.00%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
UMA ×2Long69%0.5+10.15%0.90%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
PROVE ×2Long73%1.3+3.98%8.72%7dstoppedJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
ILVLong63%0.8+9.00%3.11%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST
AVNT ×3Long67%0.2+16.37%7.29%openJul 31, 00:00 UTCJul 31, 05:30 IST

About this data

How is signal performance measured?

For every signal that becomes active we record its entry and the engine's stop, then track the coin forward from price data. For each take-profit target (+1/2/3/5%) we record whether the coin reached it before the stop — that is the win rate — plus the median follow-through (MFE) and the median heat taken (MAE). Nothing is back-fitted; it is recorded live as signals fire.

Why win rate "per target" instead of one success number?

Because the exit is the trader's choice. One trader takes profit at +2%, another at +3%, another trails. So we show the win rate at each target — the share of signals that reached it before the stop — and you read the column that matches how you (or your agent) would exit.

What does "Raw stop" mean, and why is it not the headline?

Raw stop is the share of signals that eventually touched the engine's initial stop assuming NO take-profit and no trailing — a deliberate worst case. A signal can run +2% or +3% (a win for most exits) and still later drift back to that raw stop, so a high raw-stop figure does not mean the signal was a losing trade. The win-rate columns reflect how people actually trade.

Does a signal need a trade to be recorded?

No. Every active signal is recorded whether or not a trade was taken, so the ledger reflects the engine's true hit rate rather than a curated subset.

Is this a guarantee of future results?

No. This is transparent historical performance of live signals and a research tool. It is a limited, recent window — crypto trading carries significant risk and past performance does not guarantee future results.